NFL Week 17 Takeaways: As Bengals Face Bills, Burrow ‘Looks Like Tom Brady’ When He First Started Rolling

. The Bengals are better than they were up front last year but still aren’t great. The Bills are solid, too, but beatable. “I think this game is won up front,” a fourth AFC exec says. “The Buffalo defensive front’s really good, and the Cincinnati line isn’t great, and same with the Cincinnati D-line and the Buffalo O-line. I think that’s where the shift is. If Buffalo causes havoc up front, and really executes well on the back end, it could drive Burrow crazy.” Our fifth AFC exec adds, “Cincinnati’s offensive line is catching up with the rest of the offense, and Burrow’s offset that, too, with his ability to get to him.” So, therein, our defensive coach says testing the Bengals’ willingness to run the ball with Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine, and creating third-and-long situations will be important, “so he has to hold on to the ball, and so the offensive line has to protect. First and second down, you’re forced to play shell defense so he can’t just throw it up to [Ja’Marr] Chase and Tee [Higgins], and that’s a problem, too, because they can get the ball out fast to Chase underneath and now you have to tackle him. You want to get them in situations where you can actually pass-rush him and test the line.”

. And this is, of course, specifically a Josh Allen problem. “The thing that makes them so tough is even if you get them into third-and-medium, the quarterback can ruin whatever you just did, even if you’re playing good defense, by running for the first down,” our first AFC exec says. “That’s what’s frustrating about playing Buffalo. You can do everything right, and the quarterback ruins it.” That said, Cincinnati defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo’s scheme is smart, sound and adaptable. And edge rushers Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson bring versatility, which allows him to disguise and mix fronts—he can stand them up and go into a run-stopping 3–4 to set edges and contain Allen, rush them from down positions, or even drop them into zone coverage. It’s with that versatility, that our defensive coach gave us a rough blueprint for handling Allen. “If you have athletes who can chase him down, and I’m not totally sure if Cincinnati does, you can rush three and then chase him with [a linebacker], or run simulated pressures where you bring some from the secondary and drop one of those guys off the line.” Our coach, by the way, mentioned how Anarumo’s success dealing with Patrick Mahomes—and he’s had some—should help the Bengals draw the blueprint for handling Allen when he plays off schedule. And in this game, it might come down to keeping him in a box in those situations. “You might think I’m crazy, but I still think there’s a part of Josh where when s— gets tough, and it’s third-and-8, and he has to be accurate and not put the ball in harm’s way. He’s not bad; I’m not saying that. But he’s not on the level of someone like Burrow. Which is nitpicking, but it’s there.”

. The Bengals lost top corner Chidobe Awuzie for the year, and the Bills lost long-time captain and star safety Micah Hyde, and both defensive backfields have had to work around those and other losses. Anarumo and Bills DC Leslie Frazier have managed the absences deftly. But the challenge each will face tonight is, obviously, a steep one. “Buffalo is so sound, but its secondary is slow,” our second AFC exec says. “The scheme covers for that, and so does the fact that it can rush the passer. The coverage is good, but it shows itself after the catch. … [Jordan] Poyer is older, [Damar] Hamlin, [Xavier] Rhodes.” Our fifth exec adds, “Frazier does an awesome job; they really do play together, and they have an aggressive front and can get after the passer with multiple people. So it’s mitigated because of the way he coaches them, how sound they are and how they get after the quarterback.” With all that said, one thing that was repeatedly pointed out is that Buffalo isn’t overly complex—with a simpler, play-fast approach, and with some variation in coverage. And that could allow Bengals coach Zac Taylor and offensive coordinator Brian Callahan to manufacture some matchups by moving receivers around. “How will the Bills cover their receivers is obviously the real question,” our third exec says. “If they get those guys in man coverage, it’s going to be an issue.”

. Why? Well, because the defenses lack game-wreckers and will likely be guarding against shots; we could see a lot more eight-, 10- and 12-play drives. “Both of them are really steady, dependable units,” our first AFC exec says. “Both are good tackling, both are fundamentally sound, good schemes. And after Buffalo lost Von [Miller], it’s kind of similar structurally, a bunch of good players, but no one where you’re like, Holy s—, this guy is gonna ruin the game.” One key, in this vein, would be how willing each team is to run the ball, with Cincinnati typically a little more willing to lean on that phase of the game than Bills OC Ken Dorsey. “Buffalo’s run game, it’s very reliant on Allen,” our fifth AFC exec says.

? Whereas the Bills are almost forced to be balanced defensively to deal with Tyler Boyd, Higgins and Chase, the Bills have one standout skill guy—Stefon Diggs—who’ll likely dictate the Bengals’ defensive plan. “Buffalo, it has talented, good skill guys, but Cincy’s skill is high-end across the board,” our fourth AFC exec says. “Buffalo has the one guy, Gabe [Davis], [Nyheim] Hines, [Dawson] Knox, they’re good players, but the sum of the parts are better than individual talent. That’s sort of the separating factor for me. “Cincinnati has better skill.”

And so who wins? All six of these guys struggle to answer that. So this should be a good one. Buckle up.