When MLB expanded its playoff format to 12 teams in 2022, the hope was that it would create a more compelling final few weeks of the season. Four years in, it seems that mission was accomplished.
With just over a month to play, the races for each league’s three wild-card spots are far from settled. In the American League, five teams are within three games of the final bid. In the National League, the Cubs, Padres and Mets are fighting to fend off the Reds, who are just a game back. As each club jockeys for position, the margins will be thin in determining who makes it to October and who gets left out in the cold.
The household names will need to produce during this crucial time, of course, but so too will the x-factors and complimentary pieces. With a focus on the latter, here’s a pick for who will be each wild-card contender’s key difference maker for the stretch run.
New York Yankees
Current standing: 69–57, AL East 4 GB, AL wild-card 4 GU on fourth place
X-factor: SP Cam Schlittler
The rookie has impressed during his first two months in The Show, allowing no more than three runs in any of his first seven starts. Schlittler was considered among the Yankees’ top pitching prospects entering the season and is coming off his best outing when he threw 6 2/3 shutout innings against the Rays on Wednesday, giving up just one hit while striking out eight. Given Max Fried’s continued struggles, New York can use all the quality starts it can get down the stretch, and Schlittler is proving he can provide them.
Boston Red Sox
Current standing: 68–59, AL East 5.5 GB, AL wild-card 2.5 GU on fourth place
X-factor: SP Dustin May
May was squeezed out of the Dodgers’ rotation at the deadline, but so far he’s proven to be just what the doctor ordered in Boston. In three outings with his new squad, the righthander has two quality starts and a 2.87 ERA, with 17 strikeouts and just four walks. The Red Sox have been searching for a stable fifth starter for a while now, and May has filled that need with aplomb. Settling on three or four starters for a postseason series might be a more complicated problem, but it will be a welcome one if Boston can get there, and May is critical to accomplishing that goal.
Seattle Mariners
Current standing: 68–60, AL West 1.5 GB, AL wild-card 2 GU on fourth place
X-factor: DH Jorge Polanco
Early on this season, Polanco was a pleasant surprise for Mariners fans who might have been frustrated with the team’s relatively quiet offseason. A scalding hot April gave way to an ice cold May and June, but the veteran picked things up in July. Now, Polanco is struggling again, batting .196/.255/.275 in August. Seattle added reinforcements at the deadline in Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor, but that hasn’t come at the expense of Polanco’s playing time. He’s started 14 of the team’s 17 games this month, so the Mariners clearly prefer to see him hit his way out of his slump rather than turn to a replacement player. If Polanco can rediscover his earlier form, it will make a suddenly formidable Seattle lineup that much deeper.
Kansas City Royals
Current standing: 66–62, AL Central 9.5 GB, AL wild-card 2 GB
X-factor: SP Ryan Bergert
Kansas City did well in adding Bergert and pitcher Stephen Kolek in exchange for backup catcher Freddy Fermin at the deadline. The Royals slotted Bergert directly into their rotation, and he’s put up a 2.70 ERA through three starts, pitching into the sixth inning in all three. Those contributions will need to continue if Kansas City wants to remain within striking distance of the final wild-card spot, particularly in the wake of Kris Bubic’s season-ending shoulder injury.
Cleveland Guardians
Current standing: 64–62, AL Central 10.5 GB, AL wild-card 3 GB
X-factor: 1B Kyle Manzardo
Manzardo picked a great time to go on his best tear of the season, catching fire at the plate to help prop up Cleveland’s otherwise subpar offense. Over his last 28 games, Manzardo is batting .287/.396/.598 with eight homers and 22 RBIs, and the Guardians are 16–12 during that span. Perennial MVP candidate José Ramírez continues to do his part, but he’ll need players like Manzardo to chip in and give the offense more firepower.
Chicago Cubs
Current standing: 73–55, NL Central 7 GB, NL wild-card 6 GU on fourth place
X-factor: 3B Matt Shaw
The once-feared Cubs lineup has picked a bad time to go quiet. Through the All-Star break, Chicago ranked second in the majors in runs scored. Since then, the Cubs rank 26th in runs, 28th in on-base percentage and 28th in batting average. Shaw has been the exception, a silver lining that’s almost single-handedly kept the offense from going under. During the second half, the 2023 first-round pick is batting .302/.344/.721 with nine home runs, four stolen bases and 16 extra-base hits in 30 games. After a slow start to his rookie season, the third baseman has found his power stroke, helping pick up the slack for slumping stars Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Dansby Swanson.
San Diego Padres
Current standing: 72–56, NL West 1 GB, NL wild-card 5 GU on fourth place
X-factor: SP JP Sears
Amid San Diego’s busy trade trendline, you’d be forgiven for overlooking Sears’s inclusion in the deal that sent flame-throwing closer Mason Miller to the Padres in exchange for a package that included top prospect Leo De Vries. Sears is much more than just a throw-in, though, and will likely be counted on to log crucial innings for an injury-starved rotation that’s already seen Michael King land back on the IL. Sears has made just two starts with San Diego and has been up and down from the minors, but it’s a safe bet that the Padres will need him to deliver in the coming weeks. He logged six innings in Wednesday’s 8–1 win over the Giants.
New York Mets
Current standing: 67–60, NL East 7 GB, NL wild-card 0.5 GU on fourth place
X-factor: 2B/3B Brett Baty
Mets fans have had a tumultuous relationship with Baty, a 2019 first-round pick and former top prospect who, prior to this year, never quite panned out. Now in his fourth big-league season and still just 25, he’s beginning to look like the everyday contributor the club hoped he’d develop into. Baty has hit .284/.357/.541 since the All-Star break to become a productive bat at the bottom of the lineup. New York has several issues plaguing its roster lately—namely pitching—so there are plenty of candidates to pick for this spot, but Baty can do the team a huge favor by maintaining this form for the next month.
Cincinnati Reds
Current standing: 67–61, NL Central 13 GB, NL wild-card 0.5 GB
X-factor: DH Miguel Andújar
The Reds landed Andújar in a deadline deal with the A’s that didn’t grab many headlines, but the well-traveled slugger has quickly made himself right at home on his fourth team in as many years. Since arriving in Cincinnati, Andújar has started 13 of 17 games (mostly at DH) and raked, batting .383/.442/.660 while predominantly hitting out of the cleanup spot. Reds pitchers have put up the league’s third-lowest ERA (3.39) since the All-Star break, and if their below-average offense can get this big of a boost from Andujar down the stretch, it might be enough to run down the teams ahead of them.
