It would be hard to call Chelsea's season anything other than a disaster at present, as with over half of their Premier League games now played, they sit in tenth place and look a million miles off of Champions League qualification.
That said, Mauricio Pochettino has guided his side into the fourth round of the FA Cup and to a League Cup semi-final, although they'll head into the second leg of that tie 1-0 down to Championship outfit Middlesbrough.
There are plenty of problems with the Blues this year, but one of the main ones is their frontline's inability to put away the decent amount of chances they're given.
With this problem practically impossible not to notice, the club have been linked with a number of quality number nines this window, including Brentford's Ivan Toney, although they would be better served going after the latest name touted for a move to west London: Brighton & Hove Albion's Evan Ferguson.
Chelsea transfer news – Evan Ferguson
According to the Evening Standard, Chelsea are on the lookout for a new striker in 2024, and Brighton's Irish sensation Ferguson is one of their targets as they have been 'long-term admirers' of the teenager.
The report has revealed that while the interest from the Blues is genuine, so is the desire of the Seagulls to keep hold of their tremendously exciting talent.
This determination to keep their budding superstar for a bit longer, combined with his new contract that is set to run until summer 2029, means that if the Pensioners are to sign him this year, it'll cost at least £100m, and based on their business with the south coast side in the summer, there is every chance it could end up being more than that.
However, with the alternatives in Victor Osimhen and Toney set to cost just as much, if not more, it might be wiser for Chelsea to sign the much younger Ferguson with the expectation that he could lead the line for over a decade or be sold on for an even bigger fee down the line.
Chelsea can forget about Toney with Ferguson
Now, were Chelsea to end up with the Brentford ace instead of Ferguson, it really wouldn't be the end of the world, as the Englishman's fantastic finishing would practically guarantee that the Blues would climb up the table in the second half of the season – having scored 20 league goals last season.
However, aside from ability, two key factors make a move for the Brighton man, whom Chris Sutton described as being "as ruthless as they come", more appealing.
First, for as fantastic and game-changing as Toney can be, he hasn't played any football since he was banned for betting offences in May, and so to expect him to come in right away and play at his best is probably quite naive.
Second, at 27 years old, he is eight years the Irishman's senior, and while 27 is not old in modern football, he'll have significantly less time to make an impact at Stamford Bridge.
With that said, how do the pair's underlying numbers compare? Well, when comparing the pair's output last season – there is nothing to look at for Toney this year – there is not an awful lot to pick between the two.
While the former Newcastle United striker outdoes his competition in metrics such as goals scored, goals per shot on target, and aerial duels won per 90, he comes out second best in numerous other areas.
Stats per 90
Ferguson
Toney
Goals
0.57
0.61
Non-Penalty Expected Goals + Assists
0.57
0.56
Progressive Passes
1.32
2.41
Progressive Carries
1.04
0.43
Shots on Target
1.61
1.01
Goals per Shot on Target
0.35
0.42
Passing Accuracy
80.0%
59.55
Shot-Creating Actions
2.08
2.01
Goal-Creating Actions
0.19
0.24
Successful Take-Ons
0.75
0.49
Aerial Duels Won
0.85
3.32
All Stats via FBref for the 2022/23 Domestic Season
In comparison, the "complete" Seagulls prospect, as dubbed by talent scout Jacek Kulig, comes out on top for non-penalty expected goals and assists, progressive carries, shots on target, passing accuracy, shot-creating actions and successful take-ons per 90.
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At the end of the day, their numbers demonstrate that Chelsea would be dramatically improved with the addition of either striker, but the rustiness that is sure to be there for Toney and the eight-year age gap just makes Ferguson look like the much better long-term bet.
