Week 12 in the NFL is set to kick off on Thursday night, with the Bills headed south to Houston to take on the Texans.
Buffalo enters this one fresh off a much-needed victory over the Buccaneers last Sunday, one that saw their quarterback in Josh Allen account for six total touchdowns—the second time he's done so in his career. The Bills now sit at 7–3 and in second place in the AFC East behind the Patriots.
Across the field will be the Texans who, despite being without starting quarterback C.J. Stroud as he deals with a concussion, have won two straight games behind backup Davis Mills. Houston sits at 5–5 through their first 10 games of the season and sits just outside—yet firmly on the bubble—of the AFC playoff picture.
Thursday night’s contest will have plenty of implications for both squads, win or lose, that will determine whether or not they ultimately make the postseason. Here are three bold predictions for Bills vs. Texans.
Davis Mills will throw for 300-plus yards and three touchdowns without a turnover
Speaking of Mills, the 2021 third-round pick has played solid football for the Texans over the past two weeks, and is among the reasons why Houston’s playoff hopes remain alive.
Over the last two weeks, Mills has completed 62% of his passes for 566 yards, three touchdowns and just one interception while also adding another score on the ground. Additionally, he’s guided the Texans to two-consecutive wins in the fourth quarter.
While I don’t think Mills will force Houston into a permanent change at quarterback, I expect him to perform well enough—against a Bills defense that’s allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game this season—to at least give DeMeco Ryans something to think about heading into Week 13. Look for Mills to eclipse the 300-yard passing mark for the first time in over three years, and sling three touchdowns without throwing an interception. –
Josh Allen will struggle against stalwart Texans’ defense
The Texans have the best defense in the NFL. The group is incredibly skilled at rushing the passer, excellent in coverage and very well equipped to stop the run. Houston has surrendered the fewest points in the entire league this season and have held opponents to 20 or fewer points in all but three games. They’ve also not given up 30 points in a single game.
All that to say, Thursday’s game has the makings of a difficult one for Allen and the Bills. Buffalo will be coming off a shootout against the Buccaneers, but even after racking up six touchdowns (three passing and three rushing) against Tampa Bay, Allen will not find it quite as easy to move the ball in Houston.
The Texans haven’t allowed a single rushing touchdown to a quarterback all year. Allen, who had three last week, will likely try to use his legs if he can’t find his receivers downfield, but I don’t think he’ll have too much success. I’m predicting Allen to have one or fewer passing touchdowns and get held under 40 yards rushing.
Houston will win a close one to remain firmly in the AFC Playoff picture
Although the Bills won big last week and seemingly got themselves back on track, let’s also not forget that they dropped three out of five games after starting the season 4–0.
Buffalo is undeniably among the top Super Bowl contenders in the AFC, especially with the Chiefs flailing. However, on a short week and on the road, they can be had.
That’s why, with their proverbial backs against the wall and sporting the stout defense mentioned above, I’m predicting the Texans to win a tight one over the Bills to get above .500 for the first time this season. Call it, a 21–17 victory to get to 6–5 on the year.
